The JEC made a submission to AEMO’s 2025 Inputs, Assumptions and Scenarios Report Consultation Paper.
The JEC submitted that the proposed progressive Scenario should be removed as it is fundamentally inconsistent with emissions targets and Australia’s Paris Agreement commitments. In addition, we argued for a plausible 1.5 C aligned scenario to be added, potentially by revising the previous Green Energy Exports scenario to focus it on more predictable and plausible domestic considerations.
We noted that since the 2023 IASR the national energy objectives have been amended to add the ‘achievement of emissions targets’ as an additional criteria determining the efficient investment, use and operation of energy services in the long term interest of consumers. The Ministers objective and intent in amending the energy objectives was to enable a decarbonised, efficient and reliable energy system, as a driver for efforts to achieve net zero by 2050. Market bodies were given direction that the operation and regulation of energy investment and markets should actively contribute to achieving net zero. The AEMC and AER have signaled this means that emissions reduction will be internalized in their decision making, and not seen as an externality.
Consideration of achievement of the emission targets at all levels is relevant to the AEMOs planning processes, particularly the development of the IASR. AEMOs consideration of emissions targets must be aligned with the Ministerial intent.
